Gartner analysts have published 10 top forecasts for the development of the IT industry and technology after 2018. In the coming years, according to the consulting agency, we will see the proliferation of voice interfaces, IoT and chatbots, as well as the invasion of a record amount of false information and a rethinking of the activities of the largest technology corporations.
Consulting company Gartner has prepared a report on 10 key trends for the next 3-5 years for the Symposium / ITxpo forum. Analysts have selected the trends that will have the most significant impact on the IT industry in the future. This is why the report was subtitled Pace Yourself, for Sanity’s Sake.
1. By 2021, the most advanced retailers will begin to implement visual and voice product search services on their sites. Companies will learn to better understand consumers’ wishes, interests and intentions. According to Gartner analysts’ forecasts, as a result of the innovations, the revenue of e-commerce sites will grow by 30%, and with it the rate of attracting new buyers, customer satisfaction and market share will increase. By 2021, the demand for voice assistants alone will create a $ 3.5 billion market.
2. By 2020, the process of “self-detonation” of the largest IT companies will begin. At least 5 out of 7 tech giants will begin to change the format of their activities on their own initiative. This applies to both the American corporations Facebook, Apple, Amazon and Google, and the Chinese Alibaba, Baidu and Tencent. The influence of companies will become so huge that it will become increasingly difficult for them to create new scenarios for generating profit. To stay ahead of potential competitors, corporations will have to “disrupt” their own markets and change the rules of the game with all the attendant risks.
3. By the end of 2021, the banking industry will increase the value of the business by $ 1 billion thanks to the introduction of blockchain-based cryptocurrencies. Over the past year, the total global turnover of cryptocurrencies has reached $ 155 billion. As soon as banks begin to apply new financial technologies, forecasts say that the market will grow even more. Gartner advises all businesses, not just banks, to keep in mind that crypto money will soon be on a par with fiat money. Analysts recommend starting now to reform payment systems, change the approach to collecting taxes and setting prices for goods and services.
4. By 2022, the amount of false information consumed will outnumber real information – at least that’s what people in advanced economies should expect. Companies will need to be more careful than ever before to track their information on social media and quickly identify fakes.
5. Dissemination of false information will lead to improved tools for its creation. Artificial intelligence will make it possible to produce fakes of such high quality that even another AI algorithm will not be able to recognize a fake. As a result, a “counterfeit reality” will be formed, which will be embodied in generated images, videos, documents and even sounds. Modern generative neural networks are already making it possible to create plausible simulations – for example, to make videos with the generated speech of the president.
6. By 2021, over 50% of businesses will spend more annually on chatbots than on mobile app development. The era of post-applications will come, in which virtual AI assistants, not tied to specific mobile programs, will come to the fore. According to Gartner forecasts, chatbots will penetrate all areas of communication between people in a couple of years.
7. By 2021, 40% of IT staff will have multiple skills and multiple professional tasks at the same time. At the same time, most of the activity will be related not to technology, but to business. The demand for IT technicians will fall by 5% in two years, while the demand for multitaskers, on the contrary, will grow exponentially.
8. Gartner believes that there is no need to fear the invasion of AI – by 2020, artificial intelligence will create 2.3 million jobs, and destroy only 1.8 million. However, changes in the labor market will be uneven: in one industry, all tasks can be automated, while in another, job shortages will be short-lived. At the same time, in the field of education and healthcare, job cuts will never happen, analysts are sure.
9. In 3 years, IoT technologies will penetrate 95% of electronic devices. Monitoring systems, smart sensors and meters, and cloud systems will become more affordable, and consumers will be interested in IoT. For this reason, Gartner experts recommend investing in the development of IoT solutions now.
10. By 2022, half of the security costs in the IoT segment will be not protection against threats, but elimination of the consequences of errors, including the recall of goods and system recovery after hacks.